Better decisions in complex uncertainty

When your issues are complex and unclear,
use the CernQuest online framework to
probe and explore
the possibilities, options and potential impacts
without bias, narrow vision or wishful thinking

Do you make complex decisions?
Or work through messy and unclear situations or issues?

It can be a challenge … our brains simply aren't adapted to handle messy and uncertain situations well

We unconsciously crave certainty and
often simplify things too early and too much:

We use linear cause and effect thinking to work back from a firm objective or preferred outcome, not noticing or adequately considering many other likely or possible loops, branches and decision options

Leading us to lock onto a project plan that is full of (often unstated) assumptions and wishful thinking

We are biased towards familiar and previously successful approaches and techniques that require our experience and capabilities ("when your favourite tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail")

When investigating and analysing, we tend to notice things that confirm what we expect (want) to hear and see

All this is reinforced by mainly involving people who are close to the situation or issue – they often have similar preconceptions and biases

Useto step out and expand and explore
a wider range of perspectives, options and possible results

"better decisions in complex uncertainty"